{
  "reportId": "AAI-LAB-2026-01",
  "preparedDate": "2026-10-28",
  "status": "Working report - not peer reviewed",
  "trainingRerun": false,
  "archiveAttribution": "Underlying experiment archive identifies Climate Index AI; this AgilityAI Lab report is a new technical review.",
  "coverage": {
    "records": 12148,
    "markets": 136,
    "start": "1981 Q1",
    "end": "2023 Q4",
    "yearly": [
      [1981, 33],
      [1982, 38],
      [1983, 44],
      [1984, 46],
      [1985, 46],
      [1986, 47],
      [1987, 48],
      [1988, 49],
      [1989, 50],
      [1990, 52],
      [1991, 53],
      [1992, 54],
      [1993, 54],
      [1994, 54],
      [1995, 57],
      [1996, 57],
      [1997, 59],
      [1998, 60],
      [1999, 62],
      [2000, 65],
      [2001, 68],
      [2002, 68],
      [2003, 70],
      [2004, 70],
      [2005, 72],
      [2006, 77],
      [2007, 79],
      [2008, 81],
      [2009, 81],
      [2010, 84],
      [2011, 85],
      [2012, 85],
      [2013, 85],
      [2014, 85],
      [2015, 86],
      [2016, 89],
      [2017, 92],
      [2018, 96],
      [2019, 102],
      [2020, 111],
      [2021, 114],
      [2022, 128],
      [2023, 136]
    ]
  },
  "tabularResults": [
    {
      "method": "Linear regression",
      "mse": 0.0016450982845057156,
      "r2": 0.01745024558590691
    },
    {
      "method": "Ridge regression",
      "mse": 0.0016451394796380624,
      "r2": 0.017425641422403992
    },
    {
      "method": "Polynomial OLS",
      "mse": 0.001792377529167971,
      "r2": -0.07051360863248801
    },
    {
      "method": "Polynomial Ridge",
      "mse": 0.001647732306952874,
      "r2": 0.015877051976168066
    },
    {
      "method": "Gradient boosting",
      "mse": 0.001522761918531163,
      "r2": 0.09051674105084195
    },
    {
      "method": "Random forest",
      "mse": 0.0012982849182362843,
      "r2": 0.22458764951186116
    },
    {
      "method": "XGBoost",
      "mse": 0.0014125744803323867,
      "r2": 0.15632718007531332
    },
    {
      "method": "Forest + XGBoost",
      "mse": 0.0013509677603194806,
      "r2": 0.19312234799266725
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "notebook": "2024-09-17-total_return_linear_regression_model.ipynb",
      "sha256": "39c9c8c671b7139a48df013859126cfd2017f4bbaa21b3cbf4aa898e8543ac5e"
    },
    {
      "notebook": "2024-09-18-total_return_linear_regression_model.ipynb",
      "sha256": "6261ff6e884741ea86ade34912d855ced3f918e8754d55324110b98888ae4c22"
    },
    {
      "notebook": "2024-09-18-total_return_gradient_boosting_model.ipynb",
      "sha256": "7f589f2f203518eedd8b64b0403d038a83a77bb8ed4879a3e0be17b1a73d82f9"
    },
    {
      "notebook": "2024-09-18-total_return_random_forest_model.ipynb",
      "sha256": "532950378355bccb74353c1bc9f143e611da3fe4f15761dde787c9ac631c1435"
    },
    {
      "notebook": "2024-09-19-total_return_xgboost_model.ipynb",
      "sha256": "88b039784d5cf4b973ef8c7810ca6203147f7a2708a306ec0b5cecba6d2aa712"
    },
    {
      "notebook": "2024-09-19-total_return_random_forest_and_xgboost_model.ipynb",
      "sha256": "59b75be9ff4ef7ea663b1c9181d46d2006fac5167c8efe594fa6562fff9894e0"
    }
  ],
  "reportVersion": "0.2",
  "supportingDocuments": [
    {
      "title": "AgilityAI Real Estate Analytics Technical Exhibit",
      "sha256": "fb2b7bb43d1a1e20d1ba254cc21ff9cb2da6a46b3d51c40ee09286a9e37e8c04",
      "sectionsUsed": "2-12 and technical source references",
      "status": "Supplied supporting technical review; original document not distributed"
    }
  ],
  "recurrentResults": [
    {
      "experiment": "Weather-feature GRU",
      "inputRows": 12,
      "features": 11,
      "hiddenUnits": [70, 35],
      "mse": 0.00029784,
      "target": "Unscaled tret mean",
      "source": "Technical Exhibit, sections 7-8; rounded cached output"
    },
    {
      "experiment": "Five-feature GRU",
      "inputRows": 12,
      "features": 5,
      "hiddenUnits": [70, 35],
      "mse": 0.00025447,
      "target": "No weather predictors; separate experiment",
      "source": "Technical Exhibit, section 8; rounded cached output"
    }
  ]
}